| 题名 | 四川省山丘区域劳动力供给与非农就业的实证研究 |
| 作者 | 张海芹 |
| 学位类别 | 硕士 |
| 答辩日期 | 2012-05 |
| 授予单位 | 中国科学院研究生院 |
| 授予地点 | 北京 |
| 导师 | 刘邵权 |
| 关键词 | 山岳区域 农村劳动力 供给潜力 非农就业 Logistic回归 |
| 其他题名 | An Empirical Study of Supply Structure of Rural Labor and Non-agricultural employment in the Hilly and Mountaious Areas in SiChuan |
| 学位专业 | 人文地理 |
| 中文摘要 | 中国山区特别是西部山区，已经成为贫困与落后区域的缩影。我国山区与平原地区之间的农村人均纯收入的差异主要是由于非农劳务收入和工资性收入的差异引起的，因而，缩小山区和平原区的差距的重要途径就是实现山区农村劳动力向非农产业的成功转移。目前针对山区这一特殊区域进行非农就业的研究较少。四川省是山区大省，本文在全国大范围内出现劳动力短缺问题的环境下，以四川省山丘区域为例，利用2008年调研数据进行实证分析，以期为四川省山丘区域乃至全国山丘区域的发展提供参考建议。通过分析和研究，本文得出以下成果：（1）从年龄、性别、教育年限、健康状况等方面统计分析四川省山丘区域农村劳动力资源现状，探讨其是否还有潜力，得出劳动力年龄偏大，平均年龄为41岁；其受教育年限较低，仅为6.64年；剩余农业劳动力参与非农就业的潜力有限，山丘区域劳动力状况呈现出逼近刘易斯拐点的趋势。（2）运用二元Logistic回归模型，分析劳动力是否参与非农就业的影响因素，并分样本村类型（山区村和丘陵村）、分性别对比分析影响因素的异同。得出：男性比女性从事非农就业的概率大，家庭没有小于3岁小孩的劳动力更倾向于从事非农工作；年龄、耕地面积、到乡镇所需要的时间对非农就业选择具有负效应，文化程度和家庭规模具有正效应。影响山区村和丘陵村非农就业的因素差异主要表现在耕地面积、婚姻、家庭规模、有无小于3岁的小孩和自然地理特征上。家里有小于3岁的小孩、耕地面积、年龄和受教育年限是限制女性从事非农就业的主要因素。 （3）运用二元Logistic回归模型，分析劳动力是否参与兼业劳动的影响因素，得出：到乡镇时间较短，文化水平高的男性已婚劳动力从事兼业劳动的可能性较大。 （4）运用多元Logistic回归模型，得出影响农村劳动力非农就业转移时间、地点和行业的因素。 |
| 英文摘要 | China's mountainous area, especially the western mountainous area, has become the epitome of poor and backward. In our country, the difference of per-capita net income of rural residents between mountainous area and plain region is mainly due to non-agricultural labor income and salary income. Therefore, an important way to narrow the gap between the mountains and the plain is to transfer the rural labor force in mountain areas to non-agricultural industries successfully. At present, the studies about non-farm employment for this particular area (mountains) are less. In Sichuan province, there are more mountainous areas. Under the environment of the labor shortage problem in the national scope, using the 2008 survey data, this paper makes an empirical analysis taking the Hilly and Mountainous Areas in Sichuan as an example. The purpose of the study is to provide some suggestions for the development of the Hilly and Mountainous area in Sichuan province and even the whole country. Through analysis and research, we arrive at the following results: (1) This paper studies the supply structure and potential of rural labor from the perspectives of age, sex, education and health in Hilly and Mountainous Areas in Sichuan. The results show that the rural labors in the Hilly and Mountainous Areas in Sichuan are slightly older, and the average age is 41 years. The average years of education are low, only 6.64 years. The potential of surplus agricultural labors who can participate in non-agricultural employment is limited. Moreover, there is a tendency that the conditions of labor in Hilly and Mountainous Areas approach Lewis Turning Point. (2) In this paper, we apply binary logistic regression model to make an empirical analysis of those factors affecting Non-agricultural employment of Rural Labor in the Hilly and Mountainous Areas. By the comparison of influence factors, we try to find the samenesses and differences between the Hilly and Mountainous villages, female and male. According to our analysis, men are more likely to be engaged in non-agriculture employment than women are, and the labors without a child under 3 are prone to non-agriculture areas. Age, cultivated land and the time from village to town have a negative influence on the choice of Non-agricultural employment, and degree of education, the family scale have positive-effect. We also find the influence factors between the Hilly and Mountainous villages are mainly showed in the aspect of marriage, the family scale, cultivated land, with or without a child under 3 and the character of Physical Geography. The major factors that restrict women engaging in non-farm work are with a child under 3, cultivated land, age and education. (3) By means of binary logistic regression analysis, we analyze the factors that affect labors choose by-business or not. We find less time from village to town, higher level education, male and married labors who are more likely to be engaged in non-farm work. (4) By means of Multinomial Logistic Regression analysis, we obtain the factors affecting the time, the place and the types of industries that rural labors engaged in. |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 学科主题 | 人文地理学 ; 经济地理学 |
| 公开日期 | 2012-07-25 |
| 内容类型 | 学位论文 |
| 源URL | [http://192.168.143.20:8080/handle/131551/4154]  |
| 专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山区发展研究中心 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 张海芹. 四川省山丘区域劳动力供给与非农就业的实证研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院研究生院. 2012. |
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