Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0177553

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	Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates
	Zhao, Chuang ; Liu, Bing 12,13,14,24,25; Piao, Shilong 15,16; Wang, Xuhui ; Lobell, David B.; Huang, Yao 18; Huang, Mengtian ; Yao, Yitong ; Bassu, Simona 9; Ciais, Philippe 3
刊名	PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
	2017
卷号	114 期号:35 页码:9326-9331
关键词	climate change impact global food security major food crops temperature increase yield
ISSN号	0027-8424
DOI	10.1371/journal.pone.0177553
文献子类	Article
英文摘要	Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multi-method analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop-and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.
学科主题	Science & Technology - Other Topics
出版地	WASHINGTON
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WHEAT YIELD ; IMPACTS ; GROWTH ; RANGE ; FOOD
语种	英语
出版者	NATL ACAD SCIENCES
WOS记录号	WOS:000402061500031
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [41530528, 41561134016] ; 111 ProjectMinistry of Education, China - 111 Project [B14001, B16026] ; National Youth Top-Notch Talent Support Program in China ; Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food SecurityCGIAR ; CGIAR Research Program on Wheat and the Wheat InitiativeCGIAR ; National High-Tech Research and Development Program of ChinaNational High Technology Research and Development Program of China [2013AA102404] ; Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions ; MACMIT (climate mitigation in agricultural production systems through sustainable resource management) Project [01LN1317A] ; German Federal Ministry of Education and ResearchFederal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF) ; European Research Council Synergy GrantEuropean Research Council (ERC) [ERC-SyG-2013-610028 IMBALANCE-P] ; French Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) Convergence Lab Changement climatique et usage des terres (CLAND)French National Research Agency (ANR) ; German Science Foundation Project [EW 119/5-1] ; Joint Programming Initiative for Agriculture, Climate Change, and Food Security Modelling European Agriculture ; Climate Change for Food Security Project through German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture Grant [2815ERA01J]
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.ibcas.ac.cn/handle/2S10CLM1/22255]
专题	植被与环境变化国家重点实验室
作者单位	1.Janssens, Ivan A.] Univ Antwerp, Dept Biol, B-2610 Antwerp, Belgium 2.Montpellier SupAgro, UMR Lab Ecophysiol Plantes Stress Environm, INRA, Montpellier, France 3.Univ Sassari, Desertificat Res Ctr, I-07100 Sassari, Italy 4.INRA, UMR Agrosyst & Dev Terr 1248, F-31326 Castanet Tolosan, France 5.Ruane, Alex C.] NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA 6.UAB, CSIC, Global Ecol Unit, CREAF, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain 7.Ctr Recerca Ecol & Aplicac Forestals, Barcelona 08193, Spain 8.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Climate Impacts & Vulnerabil, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany 9.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, State Key Lab Vegetat & Environm Change, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China 10.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Agroenvironm & Sustainable Dev Inst, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao, Chuang,Liu, Bing,Piao, Shilong,et al. Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2017,114(35):9326-9331.
APA	Zhao, Chuang.,Liu, Bing.,Piao, Shilong.,Wang, Xuhui.,Lobell, David B..,...&Asseng, Senthold.(2017).Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,114(35),9326-9331.
MLA	Zhao, Chuang,et al."Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 114.35(2017):9326-9331.