Intensified risk to ecosystem productivity under climate change in the arid/humid transition zone in northern China

doi:10.1007/s11442-021-1897-x

	Intensified risk to ecosystem productivity under climate change in the arid/humid transition zone in northern China
	Yin Yunhe 2; Deng Haoyu 2; Ma Danyang 1; Wu Shaohong 2,3
刊名	JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES
	2021-09-01
卷号	31 期号:9 页码:1261-1282
关键词	climate change risk assessment arid humid transition zone NPP ecosystem
ISSN号	1009-637X
DOI	10.1007/s11442-021-1897-x
通讯作者	Wu Shaohong(wush@ignsrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Assessing the climate change risk faced by the ecosystems in the arid/humid transition zone (AHTZ) in northern China holds scientific significance to climate change adaptation. We simulated the net primary productivity (NPP) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using an improved Lund-Potsdam-Jena model. Then a method was established based on the NPP to identify the climate change risk level. From the midterm period (2041-2070) to the long-term period (2071-2099), the risks indicated by the negative anomaly and the downward trend of the NPP gradually extended and increased. The higher the scenario emissions, the more serious the risk. In particular, under the RCP8.5 scenario, during 2071-2099, the total risk area would be 81.85%, that of the high-risk area would reach 54.71%. In this high-risk area, the NPP anomaly would reach -96.00 +/- 46.95 gC center dot m(-2)center dot a(-1), and the rate of change of the NPP would reach -3.56 +/- 3.40 gC center dot m(-2)center dot a(-1). The eastern plain of the AHTZ and the eastern grasslands of Inner Mongolia are expected to become the main risk concentration areas. Our results indicated that the management of future climate change risks requires the consideration of the synergistic effects of warming and intensified drying on the ecosystem.
资助项目	National Key R&D Program of China[2018YFC1508805] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20020202] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA19040304]
WOS关键词	NET PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY ; GLOBAL TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS ; STOMATAL CONDUCTANCE ; IMPACTS ; MODEL ; PRECIPITATION ; DYNAMICS ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; PHOTOSYNTHESIS ; TEMPERATURE
WOS研究方向	Physical Geography
语种	英语
出版者	SCIENCE PRESS
WOS记录号	WOS:000692383300002
资助机构	National Key R&D Program of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/165188]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Wu Shaohong
作者单位	1.Henan Prov Dev & Reform Commiss, Zhengzhou 450018, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yin Yunhe,Deng Haoyu,Ma Danyang,et al. Intensified risk to ecosystem productivity under climate change in the arid/humid transition zone in northern China[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES,2021,31(9):1261-1282.
APA	Yin Yunhe,Deng Haoyu,Ma Danyang,&Wu Shaohong.(2021).Intensified risk to ecosystem productivity under climate change in the arid/humid transition zone in northern China.JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES,31(9),1261-1282.
MLA	Yin Yunhe,et al."Intensified risk to ecosystem productivity under climate change in the arid/humid transition zone in northern China".JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES 31.9(2021):1261-1282.