Predicting the potential global distribution of Ageratina adenophora under current and future climate change scenarios

doi:10.1002/ece3.7974

	Predicting the potential global distribution of Ageratina adenophora under current and future climate change scenarios
	Changjun, Gu 1,2; Yanli, Tu 3; Linshan, Liu 1; Bo, Wei 1,2; Yili, Zhang 1,2; Haibin, Yu 4; Xilong, Wang 3; Zhuoga, Yangjin 3; Binghua, Zhang 1,2; Bohao, Cui 1,2
刊名	ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
	2021-08-08
页码	22
关键词	Ageratina adenophora climate change ecological niche modeling invasive alien species MaxEnt
ISSN号	2045-7758
DOI	10.1002/ece3.7974
通讯作者	Linshan, Liu(liuls@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Aim Invasive alien species (IAS) threaten ecosystems and humans worldwide, and future climate change may accelerate the expansion of IAS. Predicting the suitable areas of IAS can prevent their further expansion. Ageratina adenophora is an invasive weed over 30 countries in tropical and subtropical regions. However, the potential suitable areas of A. adenophora remain unclear along with its response to climate change. This study explored and mapped the current and future potential suitable areas of Ageratina adenophora. Location Global. Taxa Asteraceae A. adenophora (Spreng.) R.M.King & H.Rob. Commonly known as Crofton weed. Methods Based on A. adenophora occurrence data and climate data, we predicted its suitable areas of this weed under current and future (four RCPs in 2050 and 2070) by MaxEnt model. We used ArcGIS 10.4 to explore the potential suitable area distribution characteristics of this weed and the "ecospat" package in R to analyze its altitudinal distribution changes. Results The area under the curve (AUC) value (>0.9) and true skill statistics (TSS) value (>0.8) indicated excelled model performance. Among environment factors, mean temperature of coldest quarter contributed most to the model. Globally, the suitable areas for A. adenophora invasion decreased under climate change scenarios, although regional increases were observed, including in six biodiversity hotspot regions. The potential suitable areas of A. adenophora under climate change would expand in regions with higher elevation (3,000-3,500 m). Main conclusions Mean temperature of coldest quarter was the most important variable influencing the potential suitable area of A. Adenophora. Under the background of a warming climate, the potential suitable area of A. adenophora will shrink globally but increase in six biodiversity hotspot regions. The potential suitable area of A. adenophora would expand at higher elevation (3,000-3,500 m) under climate change. Mountain ecosystems are of special concern as they are rich in biodiversity and sensitive to climate change, and increasing human activities provide more opportunities for IAS invasion.
资助项目	Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20040201] ; Investigation and risk assessment of exotic invasive species in Xizang[ZD20170021] ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP)[2019QZKK0603]
WOS关键词	SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; EUPATORIUM-ADENOPHORUM ; CROFTON WEED ; PLANT INVASIONS ; GEOGRAPHICAL-DISTRIBUTION ; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ; BIOLOGICAL-CONTROL ; MEDICINAL-PLANT ; PROTECTED AREAS ; RANGE SHIFTS
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Evolutionary Biology
语种	英语
出版者	WILEY
WOS记录号	WOS:000682866100001
资助机构	Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Investigation and risk assessment of exotic invasive species in Xizang ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP)
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/164727]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Linshan, Liu
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Tibet Plateau Inst Biol, Lhasa, Peoples R China 4.Guangzhou Univ, Sch Life Sci, Guangzhou, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Changjun, Gu,Yanli, Tu,Linshan, Liu,et al. Predicting the potential global distribution of Ageratina adenophora under current and future climate change scenarios[J]. ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION,2021:22.
APA	Changjun, Gu.,Yanli, Tu.,Linshan, Liu.,Bo, Wei.,Yili, Zhang.,...&Bohao, Cui.(2021).Predicting the potential global distribution of Ageratina adenophora under current and future climate change scenarios.ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION,22.
MLA	Changjun, Gu,et al."Predicting the potential global distribution of Ageratina adenophora under current and future climate change scenarios".ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION (2021):22.