The collective wisdom in the COVID-19 research: Comparison and synthesis of epidemiological parameter estimates in preprints and peer-reviewed articles | |
Wang, Yuejiao1,2; Cao, Zhidong2; Zeng, Daniel Dajun2; Zhang, Qingpeng3; Luo, Tianyi1,2 | |
刊名 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES |
2021-03-01 | |
卷号 | 104期号:1页码:1-6 |
关键词 | COVID-19 Preprint Peer review Epidemiology |
ISSN号 | 1201-9712 |
DOI | 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.12.040 |
英文摘要 | Objectives: We aimed to explore the collective wisdom of preprints related to COVID-19 by comparing and synthesizing them with results of peer-reviewed publications. Methods: PubMed, Google Scholar, medRxiv, bioRxiv, arXiv, and SSRN were searched for papers regarding the estimation of four epidemiological parameters of COVID-19: the basic reproduction number, incubation period, infectious period, and case-fatality-rate. Distributions of parameters and timeliness of preprints and peer-reviewed papers were compared. Four parameters in two groups were synthesized by bootstrapping, and their validities were evaluated by simulated cumulative cases of the susceptible exposed-infectious-recovered-dead-cumulative (SEIRDC) model. Results: A total of 106 papers were included for analysis. The distributions of four parameters in two literature groups were close, and the timeliness of preprints was better. Synthesized estimates of the basic reproduction number (3.18, 95% CI 2.85 & ndash;3.53), incubation period (5.44 days, 95% CI 4.98 & ndash;5.99), infectious period (6.25 days, 95% CI 5.09 & ndash;7.51), and case-fatality-rate (4.51%, 95% CI 3.41%& ndash;6.29%) were obtained. Simulated cumulative cases of the SEIRDC model matched well with the onset cases in China. Conclusions: The validity of the COVID-19 parameter estimations of the preprints was on par with that of peer-reviewed publications, and synthesized results of literatures could reduce the uncertainty and be used for epidemic decision-making. (c) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-ncnd/4.0/). |
资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[72042018] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[91546112] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71621002] ; Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation[L192012] |
WOS研究方向 | Infectious Diseases |
语种 | 英语 |
出版者 | ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000637956600001 |
资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation |
内容类型 | 期刊论文 |
源URL | [http://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/44257] |
专题 | 自动化研究所_复杂系统管理与控制国家重点实验室_互联网大数据与安全信息学研究中心 |
通讯作者 | Cao, Zhidong |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Artificial Intelligence, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.City Univ Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Yuejiao,Cao, Zhidong,Zeng, Daniel Dajun,et al. The collective wisdom in the COVID-19 research: Comparison and synthesis of epidemiological parameter estimates in preprints and peer-reviewed articles[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES,2021,104(1):1-6. |
APA | Wang, Yuejiao,Cao, Zhidong,Zeng, Daniel Dajun,Zhang, Qingpeng,&Luo, Tianyi.(2021).The collective wisdom in the COVID-19 research: Comparison and synthesis of epidemiological parameter estimates in preprints and peer-reviewed articles.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES,104(1),1-6. |
MLA | Wang, Yuejiao,et al."The collective wisdom in the COVID-19 research: Comparison and synthesis of epidemiological parameter estimates in preprints and peer-reviewed articles".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES 104.1(2021):1-6. |
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