Reduced frost hardiness in temperate woody species due to climate warming: a model-based analysis

doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03074-4

	Reduced frost hardiness in temperate woody species due to climate warming: a model-based analysis
	Tao, Zexing; Xu, Yunjia; Ge, Quansheng; Dai, Junhu; Wang, Huanjiong
刊名	CLIMATIC CHANGE
	2021-03-01
卷号	165 期号:1-2 页码:17
关键词	Climate change Frost damage Phenology Temperature change Temperate trees
ISSN号	0165-0009
DOI	10.1007/s10584-021-03074-4
通讯作者	Tao, Zexing(taozx.12s@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Wang, Huanjiong(wanghj@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	The climate warming that has occurred over the past decades may benefit plant growth and development because it reduces the severity of frost events. However, these rising temperatures may also lead to diminished frost hardiness in plants due to their insufficient hardening. Despite climate warming exerting such dual effects on frost damage, how this might change the frost damage of woody plants remains unknown. Here, we conducted a laboratory experiment that used the relative electrolyte leakage method to derive species-specific model parameters for frost hardiness and a damage model. Then we simulated the daily frost hardiness and damage of five typical temperate tree species (Ulmus pumila, Robinia pseudoacacia, Fraxinus chinensis, Salix babylonica, and Armeniaca vulgaris), from 1980 to 2015, in Beijing, China. The root mean square error (RMSE) between observed and predicted frost damage ranged from 3.58% to 7.65%. According to our simulation results, frost hardiness has declined over this 36-year period due to insufficient cold hardening of plants in autumn coupled with rapid dehardening in spring; however, the percentage of frost damage incurred by the five species showed a declining trend because of the reduced frequency and intensity of frost events. Thus, decreased frost severity may, to a large extent, offset the negative effects of diminished frost hardiness such that the frost risk faced by temperate forests may well remain constant or decline with continued climate warming.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41901014] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41871032]
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000634802900004
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/162034]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Tao, Zexing; Wang, Huanjiong
作者单位	Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tao, Zexing,Xu, Yunjia,Ge, Quansheng,et al. Reduced frost hardiness in temperate woody species due to climate warming: a model-based analysis[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2021,165(1-2):17.
APA	Tao, Zexing,Xu, Yunjia,Ge, Quansheng,Dai, Junhu,&Wang, Huanjiong.(2021).Reduced frost hardiness in temperate woody species due to climate warming: a model-based analysis.CLIMATIC CHANGE,165(1-2),17.
MLA	Tao, Zexing,et al."Reduced frost hardiness in temperate woody species due to climate warming: a model-based analysis".CLIMATIC CHANGE 165.1-2(2021):17.