Effect of different resumption strategies to flatten the potential COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopens: a modeling study in China

doi:10.1186/s12889-021-10624-z

	Effect of different resumption strategies to flatten the potential COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopens: a modeling study in China
	Ge, Yong 1,3; Zhang, Wen-Bin 1,3; Wang, Jianghao 1; Liu, Mengxiao 1,3; Ren, Zhoupeng 1; Zhang, Xining 1,3; Zhou, Chenghu 1,3; Tian, Zhaoxing 2
刊名	BMC PUBLIC HEALTH
	2021-03-29
卷号	21 期号:1 页码:10
关键词	Resumption strategy Hierarchy COVID-19 SEIR model China
DOI	10.1186/s12889-021-10624-z
通讯作者	Ge, Yong(gey@lreis.ac.cn) ; Zhou, Chenghu(zhouch@lreis.ac.cn)
英文摘要	BackgroundThe effect of the COVID-19 outbreak has led policymakers around the world to attempt transmission control. However, lockdown and shutdown interventions have caused new social problems and designating policy resumption for infection control when reopening society remains a crucial issue. We investigated the effects of different resumption strategies on COVID-19 transmission using a modeling study setting.MethodsWe employed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed model to simulate COVID-19 outbreaks under five reopening strategies based on China's business resumption progress. The effect of each strategy was evaluated using the peak values of the epidemic curves vis-a-vis confirmed active cases and cumulative cases. Two-sample t-test was performed in order to affirm that the pick values in different scenarios are different.ResultsWe found that a hierarchy-based reopen strategy performed best when current epidemic prevention measures were maintained save for lockdown, reducing the peak number of active cases and cumulative cases by 50 and 44%, respectively. However, the modeled effect of each strategy decreased when the current intervention was lifted somewhat. Additional attention should be given to regions with significant numbers of migrants, as the potential risk of COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopening is intrinsically high.ConclusionsBusiness resumption strategies have the potential to eliminate COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopening without special control measures. The proposed resumption strategies focused mainly on decreasing the number of imported exposure cases, guaranteeing medical support for epidemic control, or decreasing active cases.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of China[41725006]
WOS研究方向	Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
语种	英语
出版者	BMC
WOS记录号	WOS:000636290500002
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/161802]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Ge, Yong; Zhou, Chenghu
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Peking Univ Int Hosp, Emergency Dept, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ge, Yong,Zhang, Wen-Bin,Wang, Jianghao,et al. Effect of different resumption strategies to flatten the potential COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopens: a modeling study in China[J]. BMC PUBLIC HEALTH,2021,21(1):10.
APA	Ge, Yong.,Zhang, Wen-Bin.,Wang, Jianghao.,Liu, Mengxiao.,Ren, Zhoupeng.,...&Tian, Zhaoxing.(2021).Effect of different resumption strategies to flatten the potential COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopens: a modeling study in China.BMC PUBLIC HEALTH,21(1),10.
MLA	Ge, Yong,et al."Effect of different resumption strategies to flatten the potential COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopens: a modeling study in China".BMC PUBLIC HEALTH 21.1(2021):10.