Assessment of potential risks induced by increasing extreme precipitation under climate change

doi:10.1007/s11069-021-04768-9

	Assessment of potential risks induced by increasing extreme precipitation under climate change
	Huang, Hefei 1,2; Cui, Huijuan 1; Ge, Quansheng 1,2
刊名	NATURAL HAZARDS
	2021-04-26
页码	21
关键词	Potential risk Extreme precipitation Threshold Climate change
ISSN号	0921-030X
DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04768-9
通讯作者	Cui, Huijuan(cuihj@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	A warmer climate has caused more extreme climate events like the heatwave or extreme precipitation, which has led to a large number of lives and economic losses. In this study, we adopt historical daily precipitation from rainfall estimates on a gridded network (REGEN) and future daily projections from 10 general circulation models (GCMs) to analyze the potential risks of extreme precipitation due to changes in the magnitude and frequency. We calculate the 10-year and 100-year return levels by fitting the partial duration series (PDS) data with the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. The potential risks are quantified in two terms: by the ratio of the magnitude to the threshold and by the exceedance frequency comparing to the theoretical value. The results show that in the future, about 46% of the world may suffer from mid or high risk of change in extreme precipitation. Most regions show higher risk due to the increased frequency of extreme precipitation events under the RCP8.5 scenario. The high risk of humid regions mainly appears under the RCP8.5 scenario and is mainly driven by frequency change, while that of arid regions appears under both the scenarios and is driven by both the frequency and magnitude change. The tropical rainforest climate areas of South America (SA (N)), the tropical savanna or tropical wet monsoon and tropical dry areas of South Asia (SA), and the subarctic climate areas of Northern Asia (NOA) may suffer more risks from the view of both magnitude and frequency changes of extreme precipitation.
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFA0605303] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41877454] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51809251] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA23100401] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS[2019053] ; Young Talents in IGSNRR, CAS[2017RC201]
WOS关键词	DURATION SERIES METHODS ; ANNUAL MAXIMUM SERIES ; CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; HYDROLOGIC EVENTS ; SYSTEM MODEL ; RIVER-BASIN ; FLOOD RISK ; FREQUENCY ; RAINFALL ; TRENDS
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000644382800001
资助机构	National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS ; Young Talents in IGSNRR, CAS
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/161646]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Cui, Huijuan
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Patterns & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Huang, Hefei,Cui, Huijuan,Ge, Quansheng. Assessment of potential risks induced by increasing extreme precipitation under climate change[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS,2021:21.
APA	Huang, Hefei,Cui, Huijuan,&Ge, Quansheng.(2021).Assessment of potential risks induced by increasing extreme precipitation under climate change.NATURAL HAZARDS,21.
MLA	Huang, Hefei,et al."Assessment of potential risks induced by increasing extreme precipitation under climate change".NATURAL HAZARDS (2021):21.