Possible NPP changes and risky ecosystem region identification in China during the 21st century based on BCC-CSM2

doi:10.1007/s11442-020-1778-8

	Possible NPP changes and risky ecosystem region identification in China during the 21st century based on BCC-CSM2
	Zhang, Chi 1; Wu, Shaohong 1; Leng, Guoyong 2
刊名	JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES
	2020-08-01
卷号	30 期号:8 页码:1219-1232
关键词	climate change NPP ecosystem risk turning point SSP245
ISSN号	1009-637X
DOI	10.1007/s11442-020-1778-8
通讯作者	Zhang, Chi(zhangchi@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Based on simulations by the Beijing Climate Center climate system model version 2 (BCC-CSM2), the possible changes in net primary productivity (NPP) of the terrestrial ecosystem in China during the 21st century are explored under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 (SSP2) 4.5 scenario. We found both the near-term and long-term terrestrial NPP basically shows a unanimously increasing trend, which indicates low ecosystem productivity risk in the future. However, the simple linear regression is insufficient to characterize the long-term variation of NPP. Using the piecewise linear regression approach, we identify a decreasing trend of NPP in large areas for the latter part of the 21st century. In the northeast region (NER) from east Inner Mongolia to west Heilongjiang province, NPP decreases significantly after 2059 at a rate of -0.9% dec(-1). In the south region (SR) from Zhejiang to Guangxi provinces, a rapid decline of -2.4% dec(-1)is detected after 2085. Further analysis reveals that the rapid decline in SR is primarily attributed to the decrease in precipitation, with temperature playing a secondary role, while the NPP decline in NER seems to have no evident relations with climate change. These findings are useful for making preparations for potential ecosystem crisis in China in the future.
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2018YFC1509003] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2018YFC1508902] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41701033] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA19040304]
WOS关键词	NET PRIMARY PRODUCTION ; CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL ; BIAS CORRECTION ; TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS ; CARBON FLUXES ; VEGETATION ; PRECIPITATION ; PROJECTIONS ; DYNAMICS ; PATTERNS
WOS研究方向	Physical Geography
语种	英语
出版者	SCIENCE PRESS
WOS记录号	WOS:000547895400001
资助机构	National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/158400]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Zhang, Chi
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Chi,Wu, Shaohong,Leng, Guoyong. Possible NPP changes and risky ecosystem region identification in China during the 21st century based on BCC-CSM2[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES,2020,30(8):1219-1232.
APA	Zhang, Chi,Wu, Shaohong,&Leng, Guoyong.(2020).Possible NPP changes and risky ecosystem region identification in China during the 21st century based on BCC-CSM2.JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES,30(8),1219-1232.
MLA	Zhang, Chi,et al."Possible NPP changes and risky ecosystem region identification in China during the 21st century based on BCC-CSM2".JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES 30.8(2020):1219-1232.