Projecting species loss and turnover under climate change for 111 Chinese tree species

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118488

	Projecting species loss and turnover under climate change for 111 Chinese tree species
	Li, Guoqing 1,2; Huang, Jinghua 1,2; Guo, Hua 3; Du, Sheng 1,2
刊名	FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT
	2020-12-01
卷号	477 页码:8
关键词	Species loss Species turnover Species distribution models Climate change Species richness East Asia
ISSN号	0378-1127
DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118488
通讯作者	Li, Guoqing(liguoqing@nwsuaf.edu.cn)
英文摘要	Climate-change-induced habitat loss will be the largest global threat to biodiversity. Therefore, quantifying regional species loss and turnover is important for alerting scientists and policymakers to potential future risks and supporting the development of proactive strategies to reduce the impact of climate change on biodiversity. Here, we projected species turnover and loss for 111 Chinese tree species under four climate change scenarios (representative concentration path ways 2.6 (RCP2.6), RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). The results show that many Chinese trees will be seriously threatened and the extent of this threat depends firstly on the migration scenarios and secondly on the climate change scenarios. On average across RCP scenarios, about 57% or 23% of the trees would be vulnerable or threatened under no migration assumption or universal migration by 2070, respectively. Projection of species loss and turnover in grid cells indicates considerable variation across climate change scenarios (22-50% and 40-67%, respectively) and across geographical regions (25.4-58.1% and 40.6-78.8%, respectively). Species from arid regions and monsoon regions will undergo more species loss than alpine regions under climate change. This is the opposite for species turnover. Notably, extinction risks for Chinese trees species may be high; even under the most conservative situation (RCP2.6 and universal migration), 18% trees will still be vulnerable or threatened. We suggest that a further studying trees adaptation strategy to climate change is required to ensure the sustainable development of China's forests.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[31971488] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31500449] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFC0504601]
WOS关键词	EXTINCTION RISK ; ADAPTATION ; NICHE ; BIODIVERSITY ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; PERFORMANCE ; MITIGATION ; PREDICTION ; VELOCITY ; IMPACTS
WOS研究方向	Forestry
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS记录号	WOS:000585781900013
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/156629]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Li, Guoqing
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci & Minist Water Resources, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 2.Northwest A&F Univ, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 3.Shaanxi Normal Univ, Coll Life Sci, Xian 710119, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Guoqing,Huang, Jinghua,Guo, Hua,et al. Projecting species loss and turnover under climate change for 111 Chinese tree species[J]. FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT,2020,477:8.
APA	Li, Guoqing,Huang, Jinghua,Guo, Hua,&Du, Sheng.(2020).Projecting species loss and turnover under climate change for 111 Chinese tree species.FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT,477,8.
MLA	Li, Guoqing,et al."Projecting species loss and turnover under climate change for 111 Chinese tree species".FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT 477(2020):8.