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题名	天山北坡中小河川径流对气候变化的响应-以精河为例
作者	李加强
学位类别	硕士
答辩日期	2009
授予单位	中国科学院．新疆生态与地理研究所
导师	陈亚宁，新疆生态与地理研究所
关键词	气候变化
其他题名	Hydrological Response of Runoff to Climate Change in middle-small River Basins on the North Piedmont of Tianshan Mountain
中文摘要	气候变化及其影响已经引起世界各国政府和科学家的关注与重视。气温、降水和径流是水文循环过程研究中的主要方向，而径流变化又是水文循环研究中最敏感因素。河川径流作为水循环的重要环节，是水资源综合开发利用、科学管理、优化调度的重要依据。影响径流变化的因素很多，最主要的是气候变化。加强对气候变化影响的研究，增强应对气候变化的适应能力，对社会、经济、生态的可持续发展具有很重要的意义。近50年来，在气候变化影响下，天山北坡河川径流响应明显。本文选取天山北坡西部的精河为例，探究河川径流量对气候变化的响应的关系。利用精河山口水文站1957～2005年的实测气象水文资料， 通过使用数理统计和非参数Mann-Kendall趋势与变点检验方法等时间序列分析方法，分析了精河出山口年径流序列和年平均气温、年降水量序列的变化趋势及变化点及各自的周期变化，探讨了近50年精河源区气候和径流量的变化特征，并对气候和径流进行模拟预测。在此基础上，采用气候集成因子法和多元线性回归及逐步回归法，分析了地表径流对气候变化的响应，并建立了最优回归方程。本文研究所得主要结论如下：（1）精河源区气温年内变化差异较大。最高气温多出现在7月份，最低在1月份。冷季气温较低且漫长。气温在四季中分化明显，季节之间的差异比较大。夏季炎热，冬季寒冷，春季气温回升快且不稳定，秋季降温迅速。通过年代际分析发现，夏季气温呈现持续增温现象，而冬季气温呈现降温变化。春、秋两季有暖化趋势，而夏天的气温变得更高，冬天气温降得更低。对于80年代后精河流域气温变暖的趋势，贡献最大的为春夏两季。通过M-K非参数检验得知，气温序列在1988年前后发生了由低向高的突变。用方差外推法和小波分析发现，气温时间序列的3a小周期较突出。（2）精河流域降水年内分配极不均匀，降水月份集中，季节性明显。连续最大四个月降水量出现在6～9月，夏季降水集中。80年代以来夏季降水增加明显，年降水量与夏季降水量相关性显著。夏季气温与降水呈负相关，年平均气温与年降水量的相关性不显著。 20世纪70年代降水明显呈现减少趋势，80年代后呈现增加趋势，降水出现丰水期，而近几年（2001～2005年）降水量偏少。对精河降水时间序列进行趋势检验发现，在1976年以后降水出现了显著的减少趋势，直至1981年减少趋势开始由显著向着不显著的趋势发展。1987年精河流域的降水量是呈持续上升趋势的。我国西北地区气候暖湿化的趋势在精河流域是存在的，精河流域气候暖湿化应该在1981年附近，时间点比其它区域要早。精河降水的年际间差异要大于年内降水差异，并存在4a的周期变化。通过时间序列方差分析外推法得到，精河径流的变化周期大致在15～18a附近。采用季节性水平模型建立的预报模型为： （ =1，2，…，M）。对精河过去的50年的径流丰枯变化发现，20世纪70年代是精河的相对枯水期，80年代后径流量呈现出增多的趋势。精河径流量的周期波动存在1957～1975年、1976～1992年两个周期。（3）精河径流在年内分配不均，季节变化明显，夏季比较集中。12月至次年3月为年内径流枯水时期，6～9月为主要产流时段。冬季径流量较稳定，各年代之间变化不明显。枯水期长和枯季径流量小。夏、秋两季径流量对精河的贡献最大，这与气候变化和河川径流的补给形式密切相关。在精河年径流总量中，季节性融水占高山冰雪融水量和雨水量总和的比重在逐年增加。汛期径流总量占年径流总量的比重也在上升。（4）精河径流的年内变化对气温和降水的响应明显，气温和降水均与径流呈显著性正相关，而降水对径流的影响要大于气温对径流的影响。降水在汛期对径流的影响较大，而非汛期对径流的影响则相对较小。春季和秋季的径流量对气温和降水的响应具有一定的滞后性。出山径流的丰枯变化很大程度上受到降水的影响。气温对径流的影响具有一定的滞后性，即当年的气温变化对次年的影响明显高于对相应年径流的影响。气候变化集成因子与出山径流的相关关系几乎跟降水与出山径流的相关程度一致。对降水和径流的逐步回归分析得到方程： （式中 为降水），模拟结果与实际值拟合效果较好。而径流量的变化幅度要比降水量的变化幅度平均偏小了十几个百分点。Climate change and its impacts have been paid more attention by many countries and scientists in the world. At present, it is necessary for the social, economic and ecological sustainable development to promote the monitoring and prediction level, develop the impact research and increase the adapting and countermeasure research. Variation of runoff is the most impressible factor in the hydrological cycle research. As a main aspect of water circulation, river runoff is the important foundation of the comprehensive development and utilization of water resources, of scientific management and optimal dispatching. Air temperature, Precipitation and runoff process are the main research directions of hydrological cycle studies. There are a lot of runoff influencing factors among which climate change is the most important. Physical geography is complex arid area. In recent years, a series of ecological and environmental problems appear here, such as climate warming, glacier shrink, lake water table descend and so on. In recent 50 years, the runoff of middle-small rivers on the north piedmont of Tianshan Mountain have the increase or decrease change because of the influence of the climate change. This paper studies on the corresponding runoff changes in the north piedmont of Tianshan Mountain response to climate change with Jinghe as the case. In this thesis, on the basis of meteorological and hydrographical data for nearly 50 years (1957-2005) of Jinghe, the variation features of precipitation and runoff and their response relationship are analysed with the methods of nonparametric test (Mann-Kendall) and correlation analysis. The study reveals that the change characters of climate and runoff in Jinghe basin in the past 50 years and simulates and forecast the two items. Based on these studies, responses of runoff to climate change are analysed by integrated climatic factors, multivariate linear and stepwise refression methods, then creates the regression equation. The main results obtained are as follows: (1) Air temperature changes have a great difference in annual time in Jinghe source region. The highest temperature appears mostly in July and lowest in January. The cold seasons have lower tempreture and last a long time. Air temperature has a sensible difference in the four seasons. It is very hot in summer and very cold in winter. Temperature goes up quickly but unstability in spring, goes downhill fast in fall. Based on decadal analysis, it has a steady increase in summer temperature, a steady descent in winter. That means it will be hotter in smmer, colder in winter. But it has a warm trend in spring and autumn. Summer and spring did the greater contribution to the temperature warming trend in Jinghe basin from the eighties of the twentieth century. Based on M-K nonparametric test, the temperature datum had a marked change from low to high near 1988. Based on square extrapolation and wavelet analysis, the temperature datum had a 3 years’ cycle. (2) The annual distribution of precipitation of Jinghe is relatively uniform, but its monthly distribution is not so even. The main precipitation and runoff volum of one year are concentrated in sunmmer period. The continuous maximal 4 rainy months is from June to September. Summer precipitation had a marked increase after the eighties of the twentieth century. There was a correlation between the annual and summer precipitation. No correlations were obtained between the annual temperature and precipitation. Obviously, the precipitation was decreasing in the 1970’s and increasing from 1980’s. But the annual precipitation had a decrease for later years (2001-2005). Based on trend test, the precipitation had a marked decrease from 1976 to 1981, then the marked trend becamed unconspicuous. The precipitation had a persistent raise trend from 1987 in Jinghe basin. The climate change towards warming-wetting in Jinghe basin has a similar trend to that of north west China and this phenomenon occured during the beginning of 1980s．This change occured earlier than that in the Tarim basin. The interannual precipitation differences is bigger than the annual ones. (3) The annual distribution of runoff volum is relatively uneven and the seasonal variation is very significant too. 74% of the runoff volum in one year are concentrated in the concentration-period (June to September)．The low water period is from December to the next March. The runoff is steady in winter and no obvious change in interdecadal variations. The low water period lasts a long time and the runoff volume is very small too. The runoff of summer and autumn did the greater contribution to Jinghe basin. This has a close relationship between climate change and feeding style of a river flow. The seasonal melt runoff had a increasing ratio in the ice-snow melt runoff and rain runoff. The flood runoff also had a increasing ratio in the annual whole runoff. The low water period occurred in 1970’s and runoff became increasing after 1980’s. Two periods existed in Jinghe basin, 1957～1975 and 1976～1992. Based on square extrapolation, the variation of runoff appears the cycles between 15 and 18 years in Jinghe. Equation is created by seasonal level model: ： （ =1，2，…，M） (4) Linear correlation analysis of hydrological observation records reveal the tendency of runoff is consistent with temperature and precipitation and a best significant positive correration relationship is presented between precipitation and runoff．The variation of precipitation in the mountain area is the main reason of affecting runoff variation．The change of precipitation is the most remarkable factor to influence the runoff change in flood period．The runoff in spring and autumn had a lagging response to temperature and precipitation. The river runoff states are influenced by precipitation in a large measure. Temperature had a lagged effect on runoff. River runoff had the similar relationship with integrated climatic factors and precipitation. Equation is created on stepwise refression between precipitation and runoff: （in the equation is precipitation），the results of simulation are in good agreement with the experimental data.
语种	中文
学科主题	气候学
公开日期	2010-11-12
页码	共92页
内容类型	学位论文
源URL	[http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/8426]
专题	新疆生态与地理研究所_中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所(2010年以前数据)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	李加强. 天山北坡中小河川径流对气候变化的响应-以精河为例[D]. 中国科学院．新疆生态与地理研究所. 2009.

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