Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four   independent estimates

doi:10.1073/pnas.1701762114

CORC > 北京大学 > 城市与环境学院

	Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates
	Zhao, Chuang ; Liu, Bing ; Piao, Shilong ; Wang, Xuhui ; Lobell, David B. ; Huang, Yao ; Huang, Mengtian ; Yao, Yitong ; Bassu, Simona ; Ciais, Philippe ; Durand, Jean-Louis ; Elliott, Joshua ; Ewert, Frank ; Janssens, Ivan A. ; Li, Tao ; Lin, Erda ; Liu, Qiang ; Martre, Pierre ; Mueller, Christoph ; Peng, Shushi ; Penuelas, Josep ; Ruane, Alex C. ; Wallach, Daniel ; Wang, Tao ; Wu, Donghai ; Liu, Zhuo ; Zhu, Yan ; Zhu, Zaichun ; Asseng, Senthold
刊名	PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
	2017
关键词	climate change impact global food security major food crops temperature increase yield CLIMATE-CHANGE WHEAT YIELDS IMPACTS GROWTH RANGE CHINA FOOD
DOI	10.1073/pnas.1701762114
英文摘要	Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multi-method analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop-and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.; National Natural Science Foundation of China [41530528, 41561134016]; 111 Project [B14001, B16026]; National Youth Top-Notch Talent Support Program in China; Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security; CGIAR Research Program on Wheat and the Wheat Initiative; National High-Tech Research and Development Program of China [2013AA102404]; Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions; MACMIT (climate mitigation in agricultural production systems through sustainable resource management) Project [01LN1317A]; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research; European Research Council Synergy Grant [ERC-SyG-2013-610028 IMBALANCE-P]; French Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) Convergence Lab Changement climatique et usage des terres (CLAND); German Science Foundation Project [EW 119/5-1]; Joint Programming Initiative for Agriculture, Climate Change, and Food Security Modelling European Agriculture; Climate Change for Food Security Project through German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture Grant [2815ERA01J]; SCI(E); ARTICLE; 35; 9326-9331; 114
语种	英语
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.pku.edu.cn/handle/20.500.11897/471352]
专题	城市与环境学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao, Chuang,Liu, Bing,Piao, Shilong,et al. Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2017.
APA	Zhao, Chuang.,Liu, Bing.,Piao, Shilong.,Wang, Xuhui.,Lobell, David B..,...&Asseng, Senthold.(2017).Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.
MLA	Zhao, Chuang,et al."Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2017).