Simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-04140-7

	Simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
	Lu, Qing 1,2; Zhao, Dongsheng 1; Wu, Shaohong 1,2
刊名	SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
	2017-06-19
卷号	7 页码:13
ISSN号	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/s41598-017-04140-7
通讯作者	Zhao, Dongsheng(zhaods@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Climate warming causes changes in permafrost distribution, which affects the surface energy balance, hydrologic cycle and carbon flux in cold regions. In this study, the Surface Frost Number model was applied to examine permafrost distribution on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) under the four RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). The Kappa statistic was used to evaluate model results by comparing simulations of baseline permafrost distribution (1981-2010) with the existing frozen soil maps. The comparison shows that the Surface Frost Number model is suitable for simulating the general characteristics of permafrost distribution on the QTP. Simulated results suggest that areas of permafrost degradation would be the smallest in the near-term (2011. 2040) with the rates of 17.17%, 18.07%, 12.95% and 15.66% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, respectively. The rate of permafrost degradation would be faster in the mid-term (2041. 2070), especially under the RCP8.5 scenario (about 41.42%). Areas of permafrost degradation would be the largest in the long-term (2071. 2099) relative to baseline conditions, with a modelled 64.31% decrease in permafrost distribution using the RCP8.5 scenario. Our results would help the decision. making for engineering construction program on the QTP, and support local units in their efforts to adapt climate change.
资助项目	National Nature Science Foundation of China[41571193] ; National Nature Science Foundation of China[41530749] ; National Science and Technology Support Program of China[2013BAC04B02]
WOS关键词	GLOBAL VEGETATION MODEL ; EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; MAPPING PERMAFROST ; CHINA ; CARBON ; ECOSYSTEM ; CMIP5 ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; FREEZE/THAW ; DEGRADATION
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
语种	英语
出版者	NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
WOS记录号	WOS:000403650300088
资助机构	National Nature Science Foundation of China ; National Science and Technology Support Program of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/62830]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Zhao, Dongsheng
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lu, Qing,Zhao, Dongsheng,Wu, Shaohong. Simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J]. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,2017,7:13.
APA	Lu, Qing,Zhao, Dongsheng,&Wu, Shaohong.(2017).Simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,7,13.
MLA	Lu, Qing,et al."Simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 7(2017):13.