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	Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions
	Zhang, Ling1,2; Nan, Zhuotong3,4; Yu, Wenjun1; Ge, Yingchun1
刊名	ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
	2016-02-01
卷号	57期号:2页码:412-431
关键词	Hydrological response Land-use change Climate change Heihe River basin Dyna-CLUE SWAT
ISSN号	0364-152X
DOI	10.1007/s00267-015-0620-z
通讯作者	Nan, Zhuotong(nanzt@njnu.edu.cn)
英文摘要	This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.
收录类别	SCI
WOS关键词	HEIHE RIVER-BASIN ; USE CHANGE IMPACTS ; CLUE-S MODEL ; WATER-RESOURCES ; SWAT MODEL ; NORTHWESTERN CHINA ; UPPER REACHES ; CATCHMENT ; URBANIZATION ; MANAGEMENT
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000368638500013
内容类型	期刊论文
URI标识	http://www.corc.org.cn/handle/1471x/2557093
专题	寒区旱区环境与工程研究所
通讯作者	Nan, Zhuotong
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Cold & Arid Reg Environm & Engn Res Inst, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Nanjing Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 4.Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Reso, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Ling,Nan, Zhuotong,Yu, Wenjun,et al. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,2016,57(2):412-431.
APA	Zhang, Ling,Nan, Zhuotong,Yu, Wenjun,&Ge, Yingchun.(2016).Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,57(2),412-431.
MLA	Zhang, Ling,et al."Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions".ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 57.2(2016):412-431.

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