Climate change risk to forests in China associated with warming

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-18798-6

	Climate change risk to forests in China associated with warming
	Yin, Yunhe 1; Ma, Danyang 1,2; Wu, Shaohong 1,2
刊名	SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
	2018-01-11
卷号	8 页码:13
ISSN号	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/s41598-017-18798-6
通讯作者	Yin, Yunhe(yinyh@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Variations in forest net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the combined effects of key climate variables on ecosystem structure and function, especially on the carbon cycle. We performed risk analysis indicated by the magnitude of future negative anomalies in NPP in comparison with the natural interannual variability to investigate the impact of future climatic projections on forests in China. Results from the multi-model ensemble showed that climate change risk of decreases in forest NPP would be more significant in higher emission scenario in China. Under relatively low emission scenarios, the total area of risk was predicted to decline, while for RCP8.5, it was predicted to first decrease and then increase after the middle of 21st century. The rapid temperature increases predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario would be probably unfavorable for forest vegetation growth in the long term. High-level risk area was likely to increase except RCP2.6. The percentage area at high risk was predicted to increase from 5.39% (2021-2050) to 27.62% (2071-2099) under RCP8.5. Climate change risk to forests was mostly concentrated in southern subtropical and tropical regions, generally significant under high emission scenario of RCP8.5, which was mainly attributed to the intensified dryness in south China.
资助项目	Cultivate Project of Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences[TSYJS03] ; National Scientific Technical Supporting Program of China[2012BAC19B02] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571043] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41530749]
WOS关键词	NET PRIMARY PRODUCTION ; GLOBAL VEGETATION MODEL ; TERRESTRIAL CARBON-CYCLE ; PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY ; EUROPEAN FORESTS ; PLANT GEOGRAPHY ; WORLDS FORESTS ; INVENTORY DATA ; ECOSYSTEMS ; DROUGHT
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
语种	英语
出版者	NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
WOS记录号	WOS:000419941000034
资助机构	Cultivate Project of Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Scientific Technical Supporting Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/56836]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Yin, Yunhe
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, 11A,Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, 19A Yuquan Rd, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yin, Yunhe,Ma, Danyang,Wu, Shaohong. Climate change risk to forests in China associated with warming[J]. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,2018,8:13.
APA	Yin, Yunhe,Ma, Danyang,&Wu, Shaohong.(2018).Climate change risk to forests in China associated with warming.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,8,13.
MLA	Yin, Yunhe,et al."Climate change risk to forests in China associated with warming".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 8(2018):13.