Untangling relative contributions of recent climate and CO2 trends to national cereal production in China

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044014

CORC > 中国农业科学院 > 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 > 气候变化研究室

	Untangling relative contributions of recent climate and CO2 trends to national cereal production in China
	Xiong, Wei 1; Holman, Ian 2; Lin, Erda 1; Conway, Declan 3; Li, Yue 1; Wu, Wenbin 4
刊名	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
	2012
卷号	7 期号:4 页码:-
关键词	climate change relative contribution cereal production China
ISSN号	1748-9326
DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044014
通讯作者	Xiong, Wei
英文摘要	There is increasing evidence of crop yield response to recent global warming, yet there is poor understanding of the relative contributions of different climatic variables to changes in crop production. Using a spatially calibrated crop model with cultivars and crop inputs held constant for the year 2000, we simulate idealized national cereal production during the period 1961-2010 under different combinations of observed climate and CO2 forcings. With increasing CO2 and all climate forcings, production shows a slight and insignificant change (-0.9% between 1961 and 2010); however, without CO2 the combined climate forcings decrease production (-8.6%). Changing one climate variable at a time, whilst holding the other variables constant at 1961 values, observed warming has virtually no overall effect on production (0.01%), precipitation decreases it by 1.2% and radiation decreases it by 7.0%. The effects are management and crop dependent, with decreasing radiation responsible for reduced irrigated crop production, and precipitation for variability in rain-fed crop production. Rice is the most sensitive crop, with the largest decline (-12.4%) in simulated production. Wheat shows reduced yield (-9.7%) owing to climate factors, whilst offset by CO2 fertilization (overall change 0.9%). Maize shows insignificant change (-1.2%) and moderate increase in production (2.6%), respectively. These model results suggest that decreasing radiation due to increasing aerosol concentration and other atmospheric pollutants has had a greater effect on crop production than warming trends in China. This underscores the need for crop-climate studies to resolve better the effects of radiation on crop yield and examine climate model projections of radiation in greater detail.
学科主题	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES ; METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
语种	英语
出版者	IOP PUBLISHING LTD
WOS记录号	WOS:000312696400018
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://111.203.20.206/handle/2HMLN22E/19878]
专题	农业环境与可持续发展研究所_气候变化研究室
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Environm & Sustainable Dev Agr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 2.Cranfield Univ, Cranfield Water Sci Inst, Cranfield MK43 0AL, Beds, England 3.Univ E Anglia, Sch Int Dev, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England 4.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Resources & Reg Planning, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xiong, Wei,Holman, Ian,Lin, Erda,et al. Untangling relative contributions of recent climate and CO2 trends to national cereal production in China[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2012,7(4):-.
APA	Xiong, Wei,Holman, Ian,Lin, Erda,Conway, Declan,Li, Yue,&Wu, Wenbin.(2012).Untangling relative contributions of recent climate and CO2 trends to national cereal production in China.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,7(4),-.
MLA	Xiong, Wei,et al."Untangling relative contributions of recent climate and CO2 trends to national cereal production in China".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 7.4(2012):-.