Statistical analysis and verification of 3-hourly geomagnetic activity probability predictions

	Statistical analysis and verification of 3-hourly geomagnetic activity probability predictions
	Wang, Jingjing; Zhong, Qiuzhen; Liu, Siqing; Miao, Juan; Liu, Fanghua; Li, Zhitao; Tang, Weiwei
刊名	SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS
	2015
卷号	13 期号:12 页码:831-852
ISSN号	1542-7390
通讯作者	Wang, JJ (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Space Sci Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China.
英文摘要	The Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC) has classified geomagnetic activity into four levels: quiet to unsettled (Kp< 4), active (Kp= 4), minor to moderate storm (Kp = 5 or 6), and major to severe storm (Kp>6). The 3-hourly Kp index prediction product provided by the SEPC is updated half hourly. In this study, the statistical conditional forecast models for the 3-hourly geomagnetic activity level were developed based on 10 years of data and applied to more than 3 years of data, using the previous Kp index, interplanetary magnetic field, and solar wind parameters measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer as conditional parameters. The quality of the forecast models was measured and compared against verifications of accuracy, reliability, discrimination capability, and skill of predicting all geomagnetic activity levels, especially the probability of reaching the storm level given a previous "calm" (nonstorm level) or "storm" (storm level) condition. It was found that the conditional models that used the previous Kp index, the peak value of BtV (the product of the total interplanetarymagnetic field and speed), the average value of Bz (the southerly component of the interplanetary magnetic field), and BzV (the product of the southerly component of the interplanetary magnetic field and speed) over the last 6 h as conditional parameters provide a relative operating characteristic area of 0.64 and can be an appropriate predictor for the probability forecast of geomagnetic activity level.
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
公开日期	2016-04-26
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/5348]
专题	国家空间科学中心_空间环境部
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Jingjing,Zhong, Qiuzhen,Liu, Siqing,et al. Statistical analysis and verification of 3-hourly geomagnetic activity probability predictions[J]. SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS,2015,13(12):831-852.
APA	Wang, Jingjing.,Zhong, Qiuzhen.,Liu, Siqing.,Miao, Juan.,Liu, Fanghua.,...&Tang, Weiwei.(2015).Statistical analysis and verification of 3-hourly geomagnetic activity probability predictions.SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS,13(12),831-852.
MLA	Wang, Jingjing,et al."Statistical analysis and verification of 3-hourly geomagnetic activity probability predictions".SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS 13.12(2015):831-852.